A powerful solar storm comparable to the 1859 Carrington event is not a hypothetical threat but a matter of timing. New modeling from the European Space Agency shows that a similar storm today could knock out much of Earth's orbital infrastructure, from navigation systems to communications and surveillance satellites. Read more in the Rambler article.
What happened in 1859?
On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington observed a bright flash of light above a giant sunspot about the size of Jupiter. It was the most powerful solar flare in the entire history of instrumental observations. Soon after, the Earth was enveloped by a powerful geomagnetic storm that lasted nearly a week.
The consequences were unprecedented: auroras were recorded worldwide, visible even in tropical latitudes, telegraph lines were damaged, several operators were electrocuted, and automatic equipment caught fire. In the 19th century, damage was limited because humanity's dependence on technology was minimal.
Why will things be different today?
Modern civilization relies on thousands of satellites located in low, medium and geostationary orbits. They provide communications, internet, navigation, meteorology, financial transactions, military surveillance, and infrastructure management.
Is there life on Jupiter's moons?
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), if an event of Carrington's scale happens again, no type of satellite will be completely protected – not even vehicles in low Earth orbit, which are often partially shielded by magnetic fields and the atmosphere.
What do the new ESA simulations show?
Recent calculations are published on Living sciencewas carried out as part of a so-called tabletop cyber security exercise – an extreme scenario simulation, held at ESA's European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt. This event is to prepare for the launch of the Sentinel-1D radar satellite.
The scenario simulates an X45-class flare—about five times more powerful than the strongest flares in the current solar cycle. This event develops in three stages:
- A instantaneous beam of radiation reaches Earth at nearly the speed of light. Such waves do not have time to react and can instantly damage the satellite's electronics located outside the inner magnetosphere.
- The second wave of radiation disrupts the operation of navigation systems and orbital synchronization, sharply increasing the risk of collisions between vehicles.
- A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a giant cloud of plasma moving at more than seven million km/h and reaches Earth in about 15 hours and causes a powerful geomagnetic storm.
Main threat
Experts consider the most dangerous factor not to be radiation, but the reaction of the upper layers of the atmosphere. Under the influence of solar storm energy, the thermosphere heats up strongly and expands. ESA estimates that this could increase the aerodynamic drag of satellites by up to 400%.
As a result, the devices began to quickly lose altitude, leaving orbit. Some of them will burn up in the atmosphere, others may fall to Earth. For the operator, this means loss of control, inability to adjust trajectory, and cascading impact effects.
2024 warning
In May 2024, Earth was hit by the strongest geomagnetic storm in 21 years. Although it was much weaker than the Carrington event, its consequences were significant: individual satellites were lost in low orbit, GPS positioning errors were recorded, and in the United States, disruptions in the operation of agricultural equipment led to losses of about $500 million for farmers. Experts stress that this is just a small example of what can happen during an extremely severe solar event.
When are there solar storms?
According to space physicists, Carrington-class solar storms occur on average once every 500 years. That means the chance of such an event happening in the 21st century is about 12% – a rate that scientists say is alarmingly high. This is why ESA, NASA and other agencies are increasingly conducting scenario exercises and developing early warning systems. However, even with forecasts, there may not be enough time for complete protection.
Thus, the simulations show that it is impossible to completely avoid losses in the event of a powerful solar storm. However, pre-developed protocols help reduce the scale of damage: switching satellites to safe mode, minimizing collisions and speeding up system recovery after failures.
Experts emphasize that space weather is becoming a risk factor just like earthquakes or hurricanes. And in an environment of human dependence on technology, this threat can no longer be ignored.
We previously wrote about what would happen if the Moon suddenly disappeared.
