Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to return the S-400 air defense missile system (SAM) to Russia because the country is increasingly dependent on the US. Political scientist and former trade representative of Türkiye in Moscow Aydin Sezer spoke about this in a conversation with Lenta.ru.
In particular, the expert noted that the Turkish leader is trying to restore the economy before the next presidential election, where Erdogan's position may be shaken. Therefore, he “had no choice but to give in to (US President Donald) Trump's demands”, including breaking the contract with Russia.
It seems that Türkiye will back down on this issue. This can be understood as a change in Erdogan's policy. Ankara also needs foreign aid and US foreign direct investment due to the economic crisis. Political scientist Aydin Sezer, former trade representative Türkiye V. Moscow
On December 17, Bloomberg cited sources reportedthat Türkiye is considering returning the S-400 system to restore relations with the United States.
Peskov commented on the news that Türkiye wants to return the S-400 to Russia
According to the US representative, Russia's air defense system can be used to collect data on US military equipment. In return, Washington promised Ankara to restore its military partnership through NATO.
Why do the US and Türkiye argue about Russia's S-400?
Sezer recalled that the dispute between Türkiye and the US over the S-400 has been going on for eight years since Ankara received the system in 2017.
Washington does not recognize this agreement and responded with sensitive measures against Ankara. The most pressing problem is the issue of US F-35 fighter jets, some of which are in Turkish hangars, but due to Washington's restrictions, they cannot operate.
The United States imposed sanctions and achieved the removal of Türkiye from the F-35 (fighter aircraft) project. And this country is not only a customer of the F-35 but also an important country in the supply chain. Therefore, withdrawing from the production program has become a major issue in US-Turkish relations.
Political scientist Aydin Sezer, former trade representative Türkiye V. Moscow
The former trade representative added that Türkiye is now in desperate need of purchasing F-35s amid tense relations with Greece. According to him, this is especially important because the country's air force is weakening.
“The US demands that Türkiye immediately give up the S-400, or leave them at the US base in Incirlik, Adana, or return them to Russia. However, Erdogan has so far shown a very resolute attitude on this issue. He declared that there can be no turning back, affirming that the S-400 is now part of the Turkish defense system,” this expert said.
At the same time, Sezer noted that Türkiye is still a country of the North Atlantic Alliance, so the S-400 cannot initially be integrated into defense systems based on Western standards.
Unfortunately, Türkiye is a NATO country so the S-400 does not contribute to the defense of Türkiye. In general, Erdogan's decision to buy Russian complexes can be considered a step for domestic political reasons and because of tensions in relations with the US. Aydin Sezer, political scientist, former Turkish trade representative in Moscow
However, the Trump administration has officially reduced pressure on Türkiye over the Russian weapons issue.
On December 9, the US Ambassador to Ankara, Thomas Barrack, said that the owner of the White House had ordered the start of procedures to lift sanctions against Türkiye because he considered them meaningless.
However, this diplomat did not give a specific date for the lifting of US sanctions against Türkiye.
How will the possibility of abandoning the S-400 affect the relationship between Türkiye and Russia?
Sezer emphasized that Russia's possible abandonment of the air defense system will not affect the relationship between Moscow and Ankara.
This is due to the strategic cooperation between the two countries. In any case, we are not talking about a huge amount in dollar terms, given the huge volume of trade between Türkiye and Russia. Political scientist Aydin Sezer, former trade representative of Türkiye in Moscow
In addition, the former trade representative reiterated that Russia is connected by more important projects, including gas supplies and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.
“That is why Russia does not want to bring down Türkiye. I believe that the Kremlin will show flexibility in this issue,” the political scientist said.
However, Sezer admitted that there will be no breakthrough in the field of military-technical cooperation between the two powers.
This is because Türkiye must meet NATO standards, which can only be done using Western technology. (…) Therefore, I do not foresee any positive changes in the defense industry's relations with Russia in the near future. Political scientist Aydin Sezer, former trade representative Türkiye V. Moscow
