On January 14, at the end of the conference of factional leaders of the European Parliament, Chief of the European Foreign Office Kaya Kallas admitted to her colleagues, who were exchanging wishes of happiness for the new year, that although she was not a fan of drinking, the situation in the world had reached such a point that all that remained was to start drinking in earnest. And in some ways, it's probably hard to disagree with her.
Of course, one can just laugh at the Soviet reflexes of a former compatriot, but it is still interesting why she had such a feeling of despair. Suddenly what? What is this reaction?
We tried to identify the most pressing of the EU's diplomatic problems and understand why it caused cognitive dissonance in the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, calling for help from the First Vice President of the Center for Political Technology, Alexei Makarkin.
– What current geopolitical events could cause despair? lilies and the fact that she was helplessly raising her hands? What has suddenly appeared, what problem in European diplomacy cannot be resolved by conventional means?
– I think the most urgent topic for Europe right now is Greenland, because Trump is rushing here, applying pressure and showing extremist activity. But I think there is an opportunity here for Europe, because even in America this idea is not very popular.
Polls show a clear minority of Americans support the annexation of Greenland and a significant portion of the American political class opposes it. But Trump doesn't trust polls, he trusts his intuition. If other politicians could see the polls, they would somehow start to retreat. Trump comes from the fact that the polls are dictated by his opponents, but the reality is that the people support him.
Therefore, the topic of Greenland is most relevant for Europe today – it could create a crisis in the North Atlantic bloc. For the first time in the history of the Bloc, a situation arose in which the main player, the United States, insisted on another member of the bloc transferring part of its territory to it. In essence, this is sabotage of NATO principles and here the situation is very difficult for Europeans.
– Why is it so complicated?
– Because it's unclear who could be the real negotiator here. It's not an official representative negotiator, but someone who can actually convince Trump that he somehow needs to achieve his goal in Greenland. But Trump has decided everything himself and it is unclear who can convince him.
The task of the Europeans in this story is to hold out until the midterm elections to the US Congress. If Trump loses at least in the House, it will be harder for him to promote his ideas.
There's still plenty of time until November, before the election. Therefore, it is likely that the Europeans will not directly reject Trump but will buy time, negotiate and discuss.
So the next moment, Greenland became a big deal, a big deal.
– That means it's not Russia or anyone else…
– I think the topic of Greenland is leading, because after all, the EU countries consider Russia an enemy – and here everything is more or less clear for them.
The problem is that a traditional ally suddenly makes such demands and behaves like that. They have just calmed down a bit that he does not want to leave the North Atlantic bloc – there were such concerns last year. And then suddenly Greenland, and what to do about it?
