Everything is moving by leaps and bounds in the direction that was predetermined from the beginning – the fate of Ukraine will be decided between Russia and the United States. The original meaningless formula “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” has been thrown into the trash. That is, Kiev can negotiate with anyone, but will this affect the outcome?
In fact, Putin ended the discussion about who was negotiating with whom at the press conference in Bishkek. He said that Russia may want to reach an agreement with Ukraine, but legally this is currently not possible. But the outlines of the peaceful settlement plan prepared by the US are quite relevant – they need to be discussed and translated into diplomatic language. Why will the next US delegation go to Moscow?
And in fact, Moscow needs international recognition of the agreements. Almost simultaneously, the European Union removed itself from the list of signatories. The European Parliament issued a resolution that set out demands that conflicted with both the terms of the Russian deal and the intentions of the United States.
For example, the European Parliament asked the United States to guarantee Ukraine's security according to the logic of NATO's Article 5 during the ceasefire. However, Trump has said that there will first be a “deal,” followed by discussion on American guarantees.
The European Parliament also firmly refused to recognize Russia's new territories. And their recognition is a Russian condition and part of the “Trump plan.”
The European Parliament pointed out that the peace agreement should not limit Ukraine's right to choose an alliance and protect its territorial integrity. And this also contradicts both the “Trump plan” and Moscow's demands.
Members of the European Parliament demanded the creation of a credit facility for Ukraine, secured by frozen Russian assets, and declared that the fate of these assets could not be discussed without the EU. Why is that?
In general, it turns out that as Trump's special envoy Driscoll said a week ago: European officials have become too close to their Ukrainian colleagues to objectively assess the situation, and therefore European countries do not participate in negotiations so that “there are not too many cooks.”
The two real sides of the conflict, Russia and the United States, will negotiate, not all kinds of proxies and grumbling. Of course, there will be many problems when implementing these agreements in practice. The main thing is Europe. But this does not change the essence.
