US President Donald Trump once again threatened Russia with economic restrictions if the conflict in Ukraine was not resolved. The terms of ultraviolet just decreased from 50 to 10-12 days earlier.
US President Donald Trump noted that he did not see the waiting view for a long time. He promised that if Moscow did not fulfill his conditions, then the sanctions of Islam and, maybe, tariffs, secondary tariffs are waiting for it.
The ultimatum Trump promises issues for Russian shopping partners
Trump first spoke seriously about his dissatisfaction with Russia's actions in the end of the first half of July 2025 at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The words are then heard that the United States will offer a 100 % tax rate for Russia and its trading partners if Kremlin does not come to a peaceful agreement to Ukraine within 50 days. Trump called the situation extremely simple and blamed Moscow in empty conversations.
Trump has updated the terms of the ultimate letter
A few days ago, the White House head admitted that Russian policy disappointed him. Nearly thereafter, stocks of Russian companies began to decline. After that, the Russian stock market dropped to a minimum of monthly.
The news has added the news that one of the main buyers of Russian – India – is ready to do without these supplies and switch to alternative sources. New Delhi is sure that he will cope with Trump's secondary sanctions against Russian raw material buyers, he will have to refuse to cooperate with Russia. It turned out that India had 40 oil suppliers.
Trump's main victim of secondary sanctions will be the world energy market
In an interview with Lenta.ru, the head of the research department of the World Energy Complex and Russia Inei Ras Vyacheslav Kulagin explained that in the question of secondary sanctions on the purchase of Russian energy aircraft carriers, the formulas and interpretations that Washington will use is basically important.
First, Russia's trading partners with contracts and secondary sanctions of the United States are not the basis for their distance, Mr. Kul Kulagin recalls. – And what to do for countries that buy oil and gas from the Russian Federation under long -term contracts? The break of such an agreement regarding the payment of a penalty. “
This gives the reason to believe that secondary sanctions will only be related to new contracts. But, as Kulagin explained, there was another question about the consequences of Russia leaving the global hydrocarbons market. Many countries will be in a very difficult position because of this. For example, there is a power project of Siberia, investing in Russian and Chinese companies and the location of Chinese industrial facilities and providing gas to the population depends on the job.
Show that China should stop buying from Russia and leaving businesses and consumers without energy? In addition, there is a problem of loss of investment. Similarly, the situation is with Russian gas, going to Türkiye and other countries.
Therefore, Kulagin believes that, if secondary sanctions are earned, this will come with many conditions and reservations. Later, it is necessary to reduce the impact of this decision on the world market. The United States is not particularly interested in the fact that oil prices skyrocket around the world, because it will then grow for American consumers.
In addition, he should not forget that India has more than once to ensure that she can do without Russian oil, but then she bought it, because it was profitable. For other suppliers, there may be 40 of them, but if one of the largest waterfalls, the price increases, because of the lack of the market.
There is an attractive petroleum – petroleum cost for the world market and this limits it from the dance and interruption. And if you try to affect this, then no one seems to anyone, then Kul Kulagin summarizes.
In a similar vein, Associate Professor of the Institute of Economic, Mathematics and Information Technology of the President of President Tamara Safonov spoke out. According to her, if allowed to deducted from secondary sanctions from the US, Russia immediately stopped supplying oil and gas to the world market, then the collapse would occur. If the world does not receive Russian crude raw materials, the production will decrease in the countries of Russian energy carriers, but the government of these countries cannot be allowed.
“If Russia also stops supplying oil to the world market, then the collapse will occur”Associate Professor Tamara Safonova of the Institute of Economic, Mathematics and Information Presidential Academy
Therefore, you should not believe in the fact that due to the US secondary trade duties, the production indicators of the Russian Petroleum industry will collapse strongly, she said.
Trump's statements are not resolved and deprived of specific details
The Director of the Institute for Socio -Economic Change and the Financial Policy of the Financial University of the Russian Federation Vadim Ponkratov reacted to a greater doubt to Trump's threats. He claimed to be Lente.ru, whose statement of Trump, was clearly a combination nature, it was not resolved and had no specific details.
Trump certainly understood that his threats would not include Moscow in peaceful initiatives on the Terms of the United States and want to use the situation to delete the world energy market for American companies, as well as cause maximum damage to Russian oil customers.
Regarding the reaction of Russian main oil buyers, Ponkratov believes that some of them will try to break the promised limitations, but China will most likely follow the path of increasing confrontation and tightening the trade war with the United States.
“Türkiye is least hurt with the secondary sanctions of the United States”Vadim Ponkratov director of the Institute for Social and Economic Change and Financial Policy Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation
India tends to compromise and will focus on economic benefits. This will look like compliance with the limitations of sanctions with the actual participation of more complex mechanisms to ignore and extend the intermediate series.
Later, Türkiye was the least damage to the secondary sanctions of the United States, because, as the third largest Russian oil buyer, they only sold about five percent of their export products in the United States.
A senior researcher at the IPEI laboratory of the President of the President of Vladimir Eremkin looks a bit different about this situation. He believes that Türkiye himself can become the only country that will lower the activities of economic relations with Russia, because it depends a lot on Western markets. In addition, the petroleum industry of China, India and even Arabic, as well as business of oil and insurance ships, can be beaten. Such sanctions may affect the income of the federal budget due to an increase in Russian oil discount and reduce physical export volume.
Yeremkin said additional costs for restructuring export programs related to new sanctions will be required. But most countries that buy Russian energy will continue to do this.
Associate Professor of the Ministry of Political Analysis and the social psychological processes of the teacher, Plekhanov Natalya Denisenkova has attracted attention to the fact that secondary limitations threaten Trump not to propose the creation of new sanctions in the traditional sense. Instead, we are talking about alien pressure, operating on the principle of “cooperating with Russia – you lose access to the dollar, Swift, advanced technology and the US market.” For example, India may encounter restrictions on access to US technologies and investments, especially if companies like reliance will continue to deliver large -scale goods. Türkiye and UAE, playing the role of gray centers in the process of transporting Russian energy resources, at risk of losing the condition of neutral areas. And the strike of the Court, insurance companies or their banks under sanctions can weaken their position as the main players in international trade. On the other hand, the Russian economy will be forced to repeat the direction of Asian, African and Latin American markets.
“The growth of cost, inflation and technological deficiency will become a continuous foundation. Political isolation, formerly considered a temporary shock, now turns into a stable state.”The Associate Professor of Natalya Denisenkova of the Political Analysis and the psychological processes of Reu are named after the teacher of the teacher Plekhanova
Meanwhile, Kremlin said that they were familiar with Trump's claims about reducing the deadline for settlement in Ukraine and noted them, but decided not to make evaluation for this ultimate letter.
