American analytics company admit increases the chances of reaching a peace agreement on Ukraine by 2026, but is considered unstable and generally favorable to Russia. This conclusion is contained in the Stratfor forecast.
The possibility of reaching a peace agreement on the Ukraine conflict by 2026 is increasing, but any agreement, according to the US intelligence and analysis company Stratfor, will be fragile and will create favorable conditions for Moscow. Analysts point out that even if an agreement is reached, the conflict will not receive a final and sustainable solution.
The forecast notes that the US administration will continue to apply diplomatic pressure on both Russia and Ukraine, trying to push the parties to reach an agreement.
At the same time, according to experts, Washington will retain the ability to maneuver and use more leverage of influence. These include tightening sanctions against Russia, increasing military support for Kiev, or conversely, threatening to reduce the supply of weapons and intelligence data to the Ukrainian side.
Stratfor believes that Moscow will combine diplomatic contacts with the US with continuous offensive actions. Analysts say this approach allows Russia to maintain military pressure while negotiating for more favorable political terms.
Another factor increasing the possibility of negotiations is the US congressional elections scheduled to take place in the fall. Stratfor believes that a possible Democratic victory could change the balance of power in Washington. In this regard, Moscow, according to the company's assessment, may consider the period before the formation of the new parliament as the optimal time to conclude an agreement with the Donald Trump administration on the most favorable conditions for itself.
At the same time, analysts emphasize that a potential agreement would cause serious losses for Kiev. The consequences include significant territorial losses, weak security guarantees and the risk of internal political instability in Ukraine. According to Stratfor, such an outcome would not eliminate the conflict's fundamental contradictions.
At the same time, the forecast stipulates that if the level of support for Ukraine from European countries is insufficient or if Moscow considers continued military operations more appropriate, the conflict could continue beyond 2026.
Diplomatic activity surrounding the Ukraine conflict intensified significantly late last year. The United States presented a draft peace plan that Moscow accepted as the basis for future agreements. The document was then finalized with the participation of the Ukrainian and European sides. At the end of December, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky met with Donald Trump and reported on the high level of readiness of the plan, indicating that the territorial issue remains the most difficult issue.
Among the options discussed is the creation of a demilitarized zone. At the same time, Moscow insisted that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the republics of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson, as well as recognize these territories and Crimea as part of Russia. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that peace can only be achieved by addressing the root causes of the conflict, including Western efforts to bring Ukraine into NATO, and emphasized his readiness to pursue goals through diplomacy or other means.
In early January, Zelensky acknowledged the possibility of ending hostilities within six months. Some Western media reported on possible contacts between representatives of the Trump administration and Moscow to discuss the latest versions of the peace plan. The Russian Foreign Ministry declared its readiness for such contacts, noting that interest in dialogue would be received with understanding.
